Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

235.15 – 230.43

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

414 – 416

Prediction missed · off by 182.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 387.1 ±11

9584Spartan Squared

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 94.9Rank 13Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

766M-A Bears

Season APEX 112.1Event APEX 37.68Rank 15Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6962Antares

Season APEX 188.2Event APEX 102.57Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 312.7 ±15.9

10185Nexify Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 58.4Event APEX 38.09Rank 12Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

5924Golden Gate Robotics

Season APEX 31.4Event APEX 10.6Rank 22Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

841The BioMechs

Season APEX 222.9Event APEX 181.74Rank 7Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9584, 766, 6962

/ 100 compat

Projected

235.2 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9584, 766, 6962

Auto

46.1 20%

Teleop

119.8 52%

Endgame

65.7 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 41%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10185, 5924, 841

/ 100 compat

Projected

230.4 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10185, 5924, 841

Auto

49.7 22%

Teleop

136.9 62%

Endgame

34.8 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 41%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.99 · Blue 1.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score235.2pts

Blue projected score230.4pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 41%, blue 35%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 4.7
Score range: 193–272
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 830 vs event baseline 207.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

387.1Season APEX312.7

46.1Auto49.7

119.8Teleop136.9

65.7Endgame34.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	68
teleop	244	282
endgame	122	61
foul	0	5
total	414	416

Result

Final score

414 – 416

Prediction missed · off by 182.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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