Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

231.47 – 151.02

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

178 – 180

Prediction missed · off by 41.2 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 425.5 ±11

8793Pumpkin Bots

Season APEX 133.9Event APEX 4.7Rank 10Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8048East Palo Alto ChurroBots

Season APEX 181.9Event APEX 125.55Rank 14Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2854The Prototypes

Season APEX 109.7Event APEX 101.22Rank 16Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 488.1 ±10.5

10339BrainShift

Season APEX 104.3Event APEX -20.16Rank 21Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6036Peninsula Robotics

Season APEX 334.7Event APEX 24.77Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6884Deep-Space Robotics

Season APEX 49.1Event APEX 146.41Rank 26Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8793, 8048, 2854

/ 100 compat

Projected

231.5 pts

~2.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8793, 8048, 2854

Auto

47.1 22%

Teleop

101.2 46%

Endgame

70.1 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10339, 6036, 6884

/ 100 compat

Projected

151 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10339, 6036, 6884

Auto

31.6 22%

Teleop

95.4 67%

Endgame

15.0 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.24 · Blue 1.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score231.5pts

Blue projected score151pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 34%, blue 32%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 80.4
Score range: 113–269
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 358 vs event baseline 210.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

425.5Season APEX488.1

47.1Auto31.6

101.2Teleop95.4

70.1Endgame15

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	50
teleop	82	109
endgame	44	21
foul	30	0
total	178	180

Result

Final score

178 – 180

Prediction missed · off by 41.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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