Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

219.07 – 37.72

91%9%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

277 – 158

Prediction correct · off by 89.1 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 319.4 ±9.2

841The BioMechs

Season APEX 222.9Event APEX 155.54Rank 7Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 62.32Rank 29Record 2-8-0Status -Confidence -

6506Steel Boot Robotics

Season APEX 96.5Event APEX 1.21Rank 30Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 351.9 ±12.2

668The Apes of Wrath

Season APEX 100.1Event APEX 13.62Rank 31Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4186Alameda Aztechs Robotics

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX -28.99Rank 19Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7667OtterBots

Season APEX 164.9Event APEX 53.09Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 841, NaN, 6506

/ 100 compat

Projected

219.1 pts

~2.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 841, NaN, 6506

Auto

39.1 19%

Teleop

118.1 57%

Endgame

50.6 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 668, 4186, 7667

/ 100 compat

Projected

37.7 pts

~0.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 668, 4186, 7667

Auto

21.0 80%

Teleop

-16.3 0%

Endgame

21.5 82%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.6 · Blue 0.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score219.1pts

Blue projected score37.7pts

Red win probability91%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 31%, blue 26%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 181.4
Score range: 0–257
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 435 vs event baseline 209.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

319.4Season APEX351.9

39.1Auto21

118.1Teleop-16.3

50.6Endgame21.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	37
teleop	197	68
endgame	22	53
foul	5	0
total	277	158

Result

Final score

277 – 158

Prediction correct · off by 89.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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