Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

647.36 – 420.59

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

464 – 403

Prediction correct · off by 100.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 680.7 ±7.1

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 24.64Rank 29Record 2-8-0Status -Confidence -

581Blazing Bulldogs

Season APEX 347Event APEX 309.95Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

604Quixilver

Season APEX 333.7Event APEX 312.77Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 776.3 ±9.3

10339BrainShift

Season APEX 104.3Event APEX 11.17Rank 21Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3045Gear Gremlins

Season APEX 355.6Event APEX 171.94Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

973Greybots

A+

Season APEX 316.4Event APEX 237.48Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · NaN, 581, 604

/ 100 compat

Projected

647.4 pts

~3.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: NaN, 581, 604

Auto

116.7 18%

Teleop

384.1 60%

Endgame

137.0 21%

Strengths

· 604 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 61%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10339, 3045, 973

/ 100 compat

Projected

420.6 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10339, 3045, 973

Auto

84.4 21%

Teleop

242.5 60%

Endgame

78.3 19%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 61%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 3.25 · Blue 1.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score647.4pts

Blue projected score420.6pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 72%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 61%, blue 53%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 226.8
Score range: 368–700
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 867 vs event baseline 293.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

680.7Season APEX776.3

116.7Auto84.4

384.1Teleop242.5

137Endgame78.3

1Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	93	61
teleop	204	210
endgame	162	132
foul	5	0
total	464	403

Result

Final score

464 – 403

Prediction correct · off by 100.5 pts

Match videos

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