FSC District Richland Event presented by Aflac & RCSD1

Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

51.82 – 44.44

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

81 – 32

Prediction correct · off by 20.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 149.5 ±10.4

4864INNovation Station

Season APEX 46Event APEX 21.19Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1102M'Aiken Magic

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 7.5Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9315Coding Comets

Season APEX 36.7Event APEX 23.13Rank 13Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 136.3 ±11.7

2815Blue Devil Mechanics

Season APEX 28.4Event APEX 7.05Rank 26Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1319Flash

Season APEX 64Event APEX 23.23Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6961SIbots

Season APEX 43.9Event APEX 14.16Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4864, 1102, 9315

/ 100 compat

Projected

51.8 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4864, 1102, 9315

Auto

15.5 31%

Teleop

25.2 51%

Endgame

8.8 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 11%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2815, 1319, 6961

/ 100 compat

Projected

44.4 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2815, 1319, 6961

Auto

21.0 51%

Teleop

9.8 24%

Endgame

10.2 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 11%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.19 · Blue 1.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score51.8pts

Blue projected score44.4pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample136alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 11%, blue 8%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 7.4
Score range: 31–65
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 113 vs event baseline 72.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

149.5Season APEX136.3

15.5Auto21

25.2Teleop9.8

8.8Endgame10.2

23Consistency46

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	20
teleop	46	6
endgame	23	6
foul	0	0
total	81	32

Result

Final score

81 – 32

Prediction correct · off by 20.8 pts

Match videos

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