FSC District Richland Event presented by Aflac & RCSD1

Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

32.69 – 66.09

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Tie

Final score

66 – 66

Prediction missed · off by 16.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 211 ±10.7

10599RoboBlazers

Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 12.88Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9477Lambda (λ)

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 9.22Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6004f(x) Robotics

Season APEX 70.6Event APEX 10.59Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 206.4 ±9.8

10619Rana's Rivets

Season APEX 93.5Event APEX 18.6Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

281The GreenVillains

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 18.84Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11308Daniel Morgan Patriots

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 28.65Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10599, 9477, 6004

/ 100 compat

Projected

32.7 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 10599, 9477, 6004

Auto

5.7 19%

Teleop

14.5 47%

Endgame

10.6 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 10%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10619, 281, 11308

/ 100 compat

Projected

66.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 10619, 281, 11308

Auto

17.9 27%

Teleop

30.6 46%

Endgame

18.1 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 10%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.93 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score32.7pts

Blue projected score66.1pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample136alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 10%, blue 14%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -33.4
Score range: 20–79
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 132 vs event baseline 70.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

211Season APEX206.4

5.7Auto17.9

14.5Teleop30.6

10.6Endgame18.1

28Consistency17

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	24
teleop	19	41
endgame	21	1
foul	15	0
total	66	66

Result

Final score

66 – 66

Prediction missed · off by 16.7 pts

Match videos

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