FSC District Richland Event presented by Aflac & RCSD1

Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

116.43 – 150.93

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

168 – 226

Prediction correct · off by 63.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 335.3 ±9.9

343Metal-In-Motion

Season APEX 136.1Event APEX 47.38Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11368SCTC ZettaBots

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 14.3Rank 24Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1287Aluminum Assault

Season APEX 149.9Event APEX 54.75Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 402.8 ±9.3

8575The Due Westerners

Season APEX 154.3Event APEX 53.99Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10388The Iron Wolverine Angels

Season APEX 27.8Event APEX 8.48Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4451ROBOTZ Garage

Season APEX 220.7Event APEX 88.46Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 343, 11368, 1287

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.4 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 343, 11368, 1287

Auto

29.0 25%

Teleop

61.5 53%

Endgame

24.7 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 15%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8575, 10388, 4451

/ 100 compat

Projected

150.9 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8575, 10388, 4451

Auto

25.3 17%

Teleop

83.0 56%

Endgame

40.7 27%

Strengths

· 4451 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 15%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.98 · Blue 1.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score116.4pts

Blue projected score150.9pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample136alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 15%, blue 21%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -34.5
Score range: 103–164
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 394 vs event baseline 72.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

335.3Season APEX402.8

29Auto25.3

61.5Teleop83

24.7Endgame40.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	31
teleop	102	103
endgame	22	92
foul	5	0
total	168	226

Result

Final score

168 – 226

Prediction correct · off by 63.3 pts

Match videos

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