FSC District Richland Event presented by Aflac & RCSD1

Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

95.18 – 35.45

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

80 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 14.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 171.1 ±9.8

1758Technomancers

Season APEX 70.1Event APEX 45.5Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5484Career Academy Robotics - Wolf Pack

Season APEX 64Event APEX 39.4Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9005Avian Robotics

Season APEX 37Event APEX 10.28Rank 25Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 211 ±10.7

10599RoboBlazers

Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 13.31Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9477Lambda (λ)

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 10.21Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6004f(x) Robotics

Season APEX 70.6Event APEX 11.93Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1758, 5484, 9005

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1758, 5484, 9005

Auto

24.4 27%

Teleop

52.0 58%

Endgame

13.7 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 9%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10599, 9477, 6004

/ 100 compat

Projected

35.5 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10599, 9477, 6004

Auto

6.3 20%

Teleop

13.1 42%

Endgame

12.0 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 9%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.49 · Blue 0.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score95.2pts

Blue projected score35.5pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample136alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 9%, blue 10%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 59.7
Score range: 22–108
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 129 vs event baseline 72.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

171.1Season APEX211

24.4Auto6.3

52Teleop13.1

13.7Endgame12

34Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	12
teleop	43	27
endgame	11	10
foul	0	0
total	80	49

Result

Final score

80 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 14.4 pts

Match videos

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