FSC District Richland Event presented by Aflac & RCSD1

Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

38.93 – 18.08

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

44 – 61

Prediction missed · off by 24 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 346.3 ±9.3

4451ROBOTZ Garage

Season APEX 220.7Event APEX 45.5Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2815Blue Devil Mechanics

Season APEX 28.4Event APEX -6.05Rank 26Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9477Lambda (λ)

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX -0.52Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 243.1 ±9.8

1102M'Aiken Magic

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX -7.38Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1293Pandamaniacs

Season APEX 26.4Event APEX 6.8Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1287Aluminum Assault

Season APEX 149.9Event APEX 18.66Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4451, 2815, 9477

/ 100 compat

Projected

38.9 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4451, 2815, 9477

Auto

9.2 23%

Teleop

19.1 48%

Endgame

11.3 29%

Strengths

· 4451 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 14%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1102, 1293, 1287

/ 100 compat

Projected

18.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1102, 1293, 1287

Auto

13.9 72%

Teleop

7.4 38%

Endgame

-1.9 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 14%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.31 · Blue 1.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score38.9pts

Blue projected score18.1pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample136alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 14%, blue 14%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 20.9
Score range: 9–48
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 105 vs event baseline 48.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

346.3Season APEX243.1

9.2Auto13.9

19.1Teleop7.4

11.3Endgame-1.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	19
teleop	13	22
endgame	20	15
foul	0	5
total	44	61

Result

Final score

44 – 61

Prediction missed · off by 24 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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