FSC District Richland Event presented by Aflac & RCSD1

Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

62.2 – 97.44

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

45 – 66

Prediction correct · off by 24.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 174.1 ±11

4864INNovation Station

Season APEX 46Event APEX 24.4Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1319Flash

Season APEX 64Event APEX 20.92Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1051Technical Terminators

Season APEX 64.1Event APEX 16.88Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 234.9 ±11.2

6961SIbots

Season APEX 43.9Event APEX 13.34Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9315Coding Comets

Season APEX 36.7Event APEX 25.24Rank 13Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8575The Due Westerners

Season APEX 154.3Event APEX 58.86Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4864, 1319, 1051

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.2 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4864, 1319, 1051

Auto

18.3 34%

Teleop

27.7 51%

Endgame

8.5 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 13%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6961, 9315, 8575

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6961, 9315, 8575

Auto

24.5 26%

Teleop

44.3 48%

Endgame

23.9 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 13%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.95 · Blue 1.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score62.2pts

Blue projected score97.4pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample136alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 13%, blue 15%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -35.2
Score range: 48–111
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 111 vs event baseline 79.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

174.1Season APEX234.9

18.3Auto24.5

27.7Teleop44.3

8.5Endgame23.9

39Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	8
teleop	6	44
endgame	2	14
foul	30	0
total	45	66

Result

Final score

45 – 66

Prediction correct · off by 24.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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