FSC District Richland Event presented by Aflac & RCSD1

Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

89.21 – 33.61

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

70 – 62

Prediction correct · off by 23.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 136.4 ±9.8

5484Career Academy Robotics - Wolf Pack

Season APEX 64Event APEX 38.77Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1293Pandamaniacs

Season APEX 26.4Event APEX 26.34Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4864INNovation Station

Season APEX 46Event APEX 24.1Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 148.7 ±11

281The GreenVillains

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 19.67Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11368SCTC ZettaBots

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 8.27Rank 24Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9005Avian Robotics

Season APEX 37Event APEX 5.67Rank 25Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5484, 1293, 4864

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5484, 1293, 4864

Auto

24.9 28%

Teleop

49.4 56%

Endgame

13.3 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 11%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 281, 11368, 9005

/ 100 compat

Projected

33.6 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 281, 11368, 9005

Auto

15.0 46%

Teleop

17.1 53%

Endgame

0.4 1%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 11%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.48 · Blue 0.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score89.2pts

Blue projected score33.6pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample136alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 11%, blue 9%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 55.6
Score range: 22–101
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 132 vs event baseline 67.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

136.4Season APEX148.7

24.9Auto15

49.4Teleop17.1

13.3Endgame0.4

52Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	15
teleop	42	31
endgame	12	11
foul	0	5
total	70	62

Result

Final score

70 – 62

Prediction correct · off by 23.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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