FSC District Richland Event presented by Aflac & RCSD1

Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

81.34 – 86.19

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

35 – 80

Prediction correct · off by 26.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 215 ±9.8

2815Blue Devil Mechanics

Season APEX 28.4Event APEX 5.47Rank 26Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

343Metal-In-Motion

Season APEX 136.1Event APEX 49.04Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11308Daniel Morgan Patriots

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 26.83Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 145.8 ±11

11368SCTC ZettaBots

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 16.16Rank 24Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1758Technomancers

Season APEX 70.1Event APEX 48.26Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1293Pandamaniacs

Season APEX 26.4Event APEX 21.77Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2815, 343, 11308

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.3 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2815, 343, 11308

Auto

22.5 27%

Teleop

38.1 46%

Endgame

22.6 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 13%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11368, 1758, 1293

/ 100 compat

Projected

86.2 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 11368, 1758, 1293

Auto

17.5 21%

Teleop

45.9 56%

Endgame

19.2 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 13%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.14 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score81.3pts

Blue projected score86.2pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample136alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 13%, blue 13%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -4.8
Score range: 67–100
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 115 vs event baseline 79.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

215Season APEX145.8

22.5Auto17.5

38.1Teleop45.9

22.6Endgame19.2

53Consistency15

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	16
teleop	16	42
endgame	5	12
foul	0	10
total	35	80

Result

Final score

35 – 80

Prediction correct · off by 26.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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