Qualification · Qualification 49
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
66.89 – 58.91
52%48%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
45 – 53
Prediction missed · off by 13.9 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 159.9 ±11.7
Season APEX 70.1Event APEX 46.32Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 23Event APEX 10.2Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 10.37Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 142.4 ±11
Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 32.09Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 64.1Event APEX 19.89Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 27.8Event APEX 6.93Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 1758, 3976, 1102
60
/ 100 compatProjected
66.9 pts
~1.2 RP (district)
Teams: 1758, 3976, 1102
Auto
15.0 24%
Teleop
26.9 43%
Endgame
21.1 33%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 11%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 11308, 1051, 10388
58
/ 100 compatProjected
58.9 pts
~1.1 RP (district)
Teams: 11308, 1051, 10388
Auto
13.5 25%
Teleop
28.9 53%
Endgame
11.9 22%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 11%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.2 · Blue 1.12
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score66.9pts
Blue projected score58.9pts
Red win probability52%
Event bonus sample136alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 11%, blue 13%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 8
- Score range
- 47–79
- Upset likelihood
- 48%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
159.9Season APEX142.4
15Auto13.5
26.9Teleop28.9
21.1Endgame11.9
36Consistency21
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 19 | 17 |
| teleop | 16 | 10 |
| endgame | 10 | 26 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 45 | 53 |
Result
Final score
45 – 53
Prediction missed · off by 13.9 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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