FSC District Richland Event presented by Aflac & RCSD1

Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

52.94 – 103.04

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

81 – 80

Prediction missed · off by 25.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 137.7 ±9.8

5484Career Academy Robotics - Wolf Pack

Season APEX 64Event APEX 36.5Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9315Coding Comets

Season APEX 36.7Event APEX 12.37Rank 13Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9005Avian Robotics

Season APEX 37Event APEX 4.07Rank 25Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 242.8 ±9.8

4083The Legendary Iron Wolverines

Season APEX 36.6Event APEX 15.56Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

343Metal-In-Motion

Season APEX 136.1Event APEX 38.03Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1758Technomancers

Season APEX 70.1Event APEX 49.45Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5484, 9315, 9005

/ 100 compat

Projected

52.9 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5484, 9315, 9005

Auto

22.1 42%

Teleop

27.7 53%

Endgame

2.4 5%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 8%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4083, 343, 1758

/ 100 compat

Projected

103 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4083, 343, 1758

Auto

19.8 20%

Teleop

49.9 51%

Endgame

28.3 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 8%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.82 · Blue 1.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score52.9pts

Blue projected score103pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample136alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 8%, blue 15%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -50.1
Score range: 41–115
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 161 vs event baseline 66.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

137.7Season APEX242.8

22.1Auto19.8

27.7Teleop49.9

2.4Endgame28.3

62Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	20
teleop	42	42
endgame	18	18
foul	0	0
total	81	80

Result

Final score

81 – 80

Prediction missed · off by 25.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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