FSC District Richland Event presented by Aflac & RCSD1

Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

66.5 – 38.36

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

65 – 41

Prediction correct · off by 2.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 210.1 ±9.8

9477Lambda (λ)

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 13.51Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11308Daniel Morgan Patriots

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 33.04Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

281The GreenVillains

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 19.95Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 151.3 ±12.2

1102M'Aiken Magic

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 11.26Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11475DawgBots

Season APEX 20.4Event APEX 6.8Rank 23Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1051Technical Terminators

Season APEX 64.1Event APEX 20.3Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9477, 11308, 281

/ 100 compat

Projected

66.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9477, 11308, 281

Auto

19.8 30%

Teleop

32.3 49%

Endgame

13.3 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 12%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1102, 11475, 1051

/ 100 compat

Projected

38.4 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1102, 11475, 1051

Auto

14.7 38%

Teleop

21.0 55%

Endgame

2.6 7%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 12%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.33 · Blue 1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score66.5pts

Blue projected score38.4pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample136alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 12%, blue 14%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 28.1
Score range: 26–79
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 106 vs event baseline 66.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

210.1Season APEX151.3

19.8Auto14.7

32.3Teleop21

13.3Endgame2.6

6Consistency2

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	9
teleop	37	10
endgame	8	7
foul	0	15
total	65	41

Result

Final score

65 – 41

Prediction correct · off by 2.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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