FSC District Richland Event presented by Aflac & RCSD1

Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

38.95 – 29.38

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

55 – 32

Prediction correct · off by 9.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 139.6 ±11.2

4864INNovation Station

Season APEX 46Event APEX 21.04Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6004f(x) Robotics

Season APEX 70.6Event APEX 8.31Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3976Electric Hornets

Season APEX 23Event APEX 9.6Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 141.1 ±11

1319Flash

Season APEX 64Event APEX 13.4Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11368SCTC ZettaBots

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 8.49Rank 24Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10388The Iron Wolverine Angels

Season APEX 27.8Event APEX 7.49Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4864, 6004, 3976

/ 100 compat

Projected

39 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4864, 6004, 3976

Auto

11.4 34%

Teleop

9.0 26%

Endgame

13.6 40%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 10%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1319, 11368, 10388

/ 100 compat

Projected

29.4 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1319, 11368, 10388

Auto

12.7 60%

Teleop

8.6 41%

Endgame

-0.3 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 10%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.2 · Blue 1.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score39pts

Blue projected score29.4pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample136alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 10%, blue 8%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 9.6
Score range: 17–51
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 87 vs event baseline 67.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

139.6Season APEX141.1

11.4Auto12.7

9Teleop8.6

13.6Endgame-0.3

57Consistency52

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	13
teleop	35	16
endgame	4	3
foul	0	0
total	55	32

Result

Final score

55 – 32

Prediction correct · off by 9.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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