FSC District Richland Event presented by Aflac & RCSD1

Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

77.39 – 99.74

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

72 – 185

Prediction correct · off by 45.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 171.3 ±11.7

1051Technical Terminators

Season APEX 64.1Event APEX 22.84Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5484Career Academy Robotics - Wolf Pack

Season APEX 64Event APEX 37.15Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10599RoboBlazers

Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 17.4Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 309.5 ±9.8

1293Pandamaniacs

Season APEX 26.4Event APEX 15.44Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

281The GreenVillains

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 12.04Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4451ROBOTZ Garage

Season APEX 220.7Event APEX 72.26Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1051, 5484, 10599

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.4 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1051, 5484, 10599

Auto

18.3 24%

Teleop

40.8 54%

Endgame

16.7 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 12%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1293, 281, 4451

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1293, 281, 4451

Auto

19.7 20%

Teleop

50.5 51%

Endgame

29.7 30%

Strengths

· 4451 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 12%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.02 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score77.4pts

Blue projected score99.7pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample136alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 12%, blue 21%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -22.3
Score range: 65–112
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 257 vs event baseline 64.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

171.3Season APEX309.5

18.3Auto19.7

40.8Teleop50.5

16.7Endgame29.7

37Consistency42

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	24
teleop	46	117
endgame	10	44
foul	0	0
total	72	185

Result

Final score

72 – 185

Prediction correct · off by 45.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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