FSC District Richland Event presented by Aflac & RCSD1

Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

39.9 – 50.89

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

41 – 94

Prediction correct · off by 22.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 101.1 ±10.4

4083The Legendary Iron Wolverines

Season APEX 36.6Event APEX 16.84Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10388The Iron Wolverine Angels

Season APEX 27.8Event APEX 9.18Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9315Coding Comets

Season APEX 36.7Event APEX 13.88Rank 13Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 253.7 ±10.7

11475DawgBots

Season APEX 20.4Event APEX 5.57Rank 23Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

343Metal-In-Motion

Season APEX 136.1Event APEX 34.84Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9477Lambda (λ)

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 10.48Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4083, 10388, 9315

/ 100 compat

Projected

39.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4083, 10388, 9315

Auto

11.9 33%

Teleop

16.2 45%

Endgame

8.2 23%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 10%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11475, 343, 9477

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 11475, 343, 9477

Auto

20.6 40%

Teleop

22.1 43%

Endgame

9.3 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 10%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.07 · Blue 1.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score39.9pts

Blue projected score50.9pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample136alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 10%, blue 13%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -11
Score range: 28–63
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 135 vs event baseline 64.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

101.1Season APEX253.7

11.9Auto20.6

16.2Teleop22.1

8.2Endgame9.3

22Consistency9

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	14
teleop	19	61
endgame	15	14
foul	0	5
total	41	94

Result

Final score

41 – 94

Prediction correct · off by 22.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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