FSC District Richland Event presented by Aflac & RCSD1

Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

51.16 – 56.16

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

80 – 72

Prediction missed · off by 22.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 187.9 ±9.8

1102M'Aiken Magic

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 11.33Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11308Daniel Morgan Patriots

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 32.56Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6004f(x) Robotics

Season APEX 70.6Event APEX 7.27Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 222.2 ±11.7

11368SCTC ZettaBots

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 8Rank 24Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3976Electric Hornets

Season APEX 23Event APEX 8.49Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1287Aluminum Assault

Season APEX 149.9Event APEX 39.67Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1102, 11308, 6004

/ 100 compat

Projected

51.2 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1102, 11308, 6004

Auto

12.0 26%

Teleop

25.2 54%

Endgame

9.3 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 10%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11368, 3976, 1287

/ 100 compat

Projected

56.2 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 11368, 3976, 1287

Auto

20.3 41%

Teleop

19.5 39%

Endgame

9.8 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 10%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.11 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score51.2pts

Blue projected score56.2pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample136alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 10%, blue 12%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -5
Score range: 39–68
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 152 vs event baseline 64.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

187.9Season APEX222.2

12Auto20.3

25.2Teleop19.5

9.3Endgame9.8

0Consistency60

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	18
teleop	45	36
endgame	22	18
foul	0	0
total	80	72

Result

Final score

80 – 72

Prediction missed · off by 22.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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