FSC District Richland Event presented by Aflac & RCSD1

Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

100.79 – 34.25

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

60 – 25

Prediction correct · off by 25 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 234.3 ±10.7

11475DawgBots

Season APEX 20.4Event APEX 0.52Rank 23Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1287Aluminum Assault

Season APEX 149.9Event APEX 56.47Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5484Career Academy Robotics - Wolf Pack

Season APEX 64Event APEX 43.8Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 144.3 ±11.2

10388The Iron Wolverine Angels

Season APEX 27.8Event APEX 13.92Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10619Rana's Rivets

Season APEX 93.5Event APEX 16.6Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3976Electric Hornets

Season APEX 23Event APEX 3.73Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11475, 1287, 5484

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 11475, 1287, 5484

Auto

33.5 34%

Teleop

49.6 51%

Endgame

14.3 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 13%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10388, 10619, 3976

/ 100 compat

Projected

34.3 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 10388, 10619, 3976

Auto

12.7 37%

Teleop

9.3 27%

Endgame

12.2 36%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 13%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.57 · Blue 0.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score100.8pts

Blue projected score34.3pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample136alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 13%, blue 10%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 66.5
Score range: 20–115
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 85 vs event baseline 79.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

234.3Season APEX144.3

33.5Auto12.7

49.6Teleop9.3

14.3Endgame12.2

51Consistency71

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	11
teleop	26	8
endgame	5	6
foul	5	0
total	60	25

Result

Final score

60 – 25

Prediction correct · off by 25 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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