FSC District Richland Event presented by Aflac & RCSD1

Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

25.98 – 63.26

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

80 – 106

Prediction correct · off by 48.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 138.4 ±10.4

2815Blue Devil Mechanics

Season APEX 28.4Event APEX -1.39Rank 26Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4864INNovation Station

Season APEX 46Event APEX 15.75Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1319Flash

Season APEX 64Event APEX 11.62Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 190.5 ±10.5

1051Technical Terminators

Season APEX 64.1Event APEX 20.98Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

281The GreenVillains

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 8.26Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5484Career Academy Robotics - Wolf Pack

Season APEX 64Event APEX 34.02Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2815, 4864, 1319

/ 100 compat

Projected

26 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2815, 4864, 1319

Auto

17.9 100%

Teleop

0.1 1%

Endgame

-0.1 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 10%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1051, 281, 5484

/ 100 compat

Projected

63.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1051, 281, 5484

Auto

23.6 38%

Teleop

29.6 48%

Endgame

8.7 14%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 10%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.91 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score26pts

Blue projected score63.3pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample136alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 10%, blue 12%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -37.3
Score range: 15–74
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 186 vs event baseline 63.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

138.4Season APEX190.5

17.9Auto23.6

0.1Teleop29.6

-0.1Endgame8.7

45Consistency54

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	23
teleop	38	62
endgame	26	21
foul	0	0
total	80	106

Result

Final score

80 – 106

Prediction correct · off by 48.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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