FSC District Richland Event presented by Aflac & RCSD1

Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

74.81 – 64.97

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

45 – 82

Prediction missed · off by 23.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 270.8 ±9.9

343Metal-In-Motion

Season APEX 136.1Event APEX 33.82Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1051Technical Terminators

Season APEX 64.1Event APEX 26.79Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6004f(x) Robotics

Season APEX 70.6Event APEX 14.2Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 289.4 ±9.3

4864INNovation Station

Season APEX 46Event APEX 15.55Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10619Rana's Rivets

Season APEX 93.5Event APEX 9.96Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1287Aluminum Assault

Season APEX 149.9Event APEX 39.46Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 343, 1051, 6004

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.8 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 343, 1051, 6004

Auto

11.2 16%

Teleop

38.3 56%

Endgame

18.8 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 14%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4864, 10619, 1287

/ 100 compat

Projected

65 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4864, 10619, 1287

Auto

23.6 38%

Teleop

27.1 44%

Endgame

10.6 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 14%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.24 · Blue 1.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score74.8pts

Blue projected score65pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample136alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 14%, blue 16%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 9.8
Score range: 54–86
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 127 vs event baseline 61.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

270.8Season APEX289.4

11.2Auto23.6

38.3Teleop27.1

18.8Endgame10.6

0Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	25
teleop	23	44
endgame	8	13
foul	0	0
total	45	82

Result

Final score

45 – 82

Prediction missed · off by 23.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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