FSC District Richland Event presented by Aflac & RCSD1

Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

0 – 104.47

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

109 – 59

Prediction missed · off by 77.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 203.1 ±11.2

11475DawgBots

Season APEX 20.4Event APEX -11.75Rank 23Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8575The Due Westerners

Season APEX 154.3Event APEX 26.31Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2815Blue Devil Mechanics

Season APEX 28.4Event APEX -14.75Rank 26Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 280.4 ±11.2

9315Coding Comets

Season APEX 36.7Event APEX 18.68Rank 13Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4451ROBOTZ Garage

Season APEX 220.7Event APEX 78.55Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3976Electric Hornets

Season APEX 23Event APEX 7.24Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11475, 8575, 2815

/ 100 compat

Projected

-0.2 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 11475, 8575, 2815

Auto

6.0 0%

Teleop

-9.9 100%

Endgame

-0.4 9%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 16%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9315, 4451, 3976

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.5 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9315, 4451, 3976

Auto

20.5 20%

Teleop

60.1 57%

Endgame

24.0 23%

Strengths

· 4451 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 16%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.63 · Blue 1.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score-0.2pts

Blue projected score104.5pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample136alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 16%, blue 17%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -104.5
Score range: -11–115
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 168 vs event baseline 60.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

203.1Season APEX280.4

6Auto20.5

-9.9Teleop60.1

-0.4Endgame24

104Consistency80

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	11
teleop	50	15
endgame	26	33
foul	0	0
total	109	59

Result

Final score

109 – 59

Prediction missed · off by 77.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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