FSC District Richland Event presented by Aflac & RCSD1

Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

54.1 – 29.8

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

107 – 37

Prediction correct · off by 30.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 196.5 ±10.4

1758Technomancers

Season APEX 70.1Event APEX 42.17Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

281The GreenVillains

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 6.05Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1319Flash

Season APEX 64Event APEX 5.88Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 131.6 ±10.4

9005Avian Robotics

Season APEX 37Event APEX 3.06Rank 25Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1102M'Aiken Magic

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 14.88Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10388The Iron Wolverine Angels

Season APEX 27.8Event APEX 11.86Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1758, 281, 1319

/ 100 compat

Projected

54.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1758, 281, 1319

Auto

19.0 38%

Teleop

17.0 34%

Endgame

13.5 27%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 13%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9005, 1102, 10388

/ 100 compat

Projected

29.8 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9005, 1102, 10388

Auto

13.0 41%

Teleop

16.8 53%

Endgame

1.7 5%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 13%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.32 · Blue 0.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score54.1pts

Blue projected score29.8pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample136alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 13%, blue 7%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 24.3
Score range: 19–65
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 144 vs event baseline 60.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

196.5Season APEX131.6

19Auto13

17Teleop16.8

13.5Endgame1.7

60Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	10
teleop	51	14
endgame	16	8
foul	15	5
total	107	37

Result

Final score

107 – 37

Prediction correct · off by 30.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree