FSC District Richland Event presented by Aflac & RCSD1

Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

55.95 – 84.98

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

21 – 58

Prediction correct · off by 31 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 140.9 ±11.2

6961SIbots

Season APEX 43.9Event APEX 14.49Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6004f(x) Robotics

Season APEX 70.6Event APEX 20.45Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1293Pandamaniacs

Season APEX 26.4Event APEX 21.01Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 130.3 ±11.7

10599RoboBlazers

Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 19.03Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4083The Legendary Iron Wolverines

Season APEX 36.6Event APEX 22.11Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11308Daniel Morgan Patriots

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 43.84Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6961, 6004, 1293

/ 100 compat

Projected

56 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 6961, 6004, 1293

Auto

11.2 25%

Teleop

19.9 44%

Endgame

14.6 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 10%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10599, 4083, 11308

/ 100 compat

Projected

85 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 10599, 4083, 11308

Auto

16.4 20%

Teleop

42.9 52%

Endgame

23.0 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 10%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.96 · Blue 1.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score56pts

Blue projected score85pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample136alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 10%, blue 12%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -29
Score range: 45–96
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 79 vs event baseline 61.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

140.9Season APEX130.3

11.2Auto16.4

19.9Teleop42.9

14.6Endgame23

74Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	18
teleop	5	21
endgame	1	19
foul	0	0
total	21	58

Result

Final score

21 – 58

Prediction correct · off by 31 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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