FSC District Richland Event presented by Aflac & RCSD1

Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

96.61 – 61.05

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

40 – 41

Prediction missed · off by 38.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 278.1 ±11.2

4451ROBOTZ Garage

Season APEX 220.7Event APEX 87.85Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11475DawgBots

Season APEX 20.4Event APEX -2.58Rank 23Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9005Avian Robotics

Season APEX 37Event APEX 11.34Rank 25Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 266.9 ±9.8

1319Flash

Season APEX 64Event APEX 9.49Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1102M'Aiken Magic

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 15.87Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

343Metal-In-Motion

Season APEX 136.1Event APEX 35.69Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4451, 11475, 9005

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4451, 11475, 9005

Auto

20.2 20%

Teleop

62.3 62%

Endgame

18.5 18%

Strengths

· 4451 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1319, 1102, 343

/ 100 compat

Projected

61.1 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1319, 1102, 343

Auto

13.4 25%

Teleop

31.7 59%

Endgame

9.0 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.42 · Blue 0.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score96.6pts

Blue projected score61.1pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample136alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 17%, blue 10%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 35.6
Score range: 50–108
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 81 vs event baseline 60.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

278.1Season APEX266.9

20.2Auto13.4

62.3Teleop31.7

18.5Endgame9

54Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	24
teleop	19	9
endgame	0	8
foul	0	0
total	40	41

Result

Final score

40 – 41

Prediction missed · off by 38.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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