FSC District Richland Event presented by Aflac & RCSD1

Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

34.6 – 66.52

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

6 – 39

Prediction correct · off by 28.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 204.8 ±9.3

9477Lambda (λ)

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 9.88Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6004f(x) Robotics

Season APEX 70.6Event APEX 11.7Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9005Avian Robotics

Season APEX 37Event APEX 13.02Rank 25Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 146.8 ±11

9315Coding Comets

Season APEX 36.7Event APEX 25.24Rank 13Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1051Technical Terminators

Season APEX 64.1Event APEX 16.88Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4864INNovation Station

Season APEX 46Event APEX 24.4Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9477, 6004, 9005

/ 100 compat

Projected

34.6 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9477, 6004, 9005

Auto

10.9 38%

Teleop

15.0 52%

Endgame

3.1 11%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 8%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9315, 1051, 4864

/ 100 compat

Projected

66.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9315, 1051, 4864

Auto

16.7 26%

Teleop

33.3 53%

Endgame

13.3 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 8%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.92 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score34.6pts

Blue projected score66.5pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample136alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 8%, blue 15%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -31.9
Score range: 21–81
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 45 vs event baseline 79.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

204.8Season APEX146.8

10.9Auto16.7

15Teleop33.3

3.1Endgame13.3

57Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	3	19
teleop	3	18
endgame	0	2
foul	0	0
total	6	39

Result

Final score

6 – 39

Prediction correct · off by 28.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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