FSC District Richland Event presented by Aflac & RCSD1

Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

62.95 – 32.42

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

71 – 60

Prediction correct · off by 17.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 117.4 ±12.8

6961SIbots

Season APEX 43.9Event APEX 14.46Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11308Daniel Morgan Patriots

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 39.66Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3976Electric Hornets

Season APEX 23Event APEX 8.83Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 169.7 ±9.8

6004f(x) Robotics

Season APEX 70.6Event APEX 14.77Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9315Coding Comets

Season APEX 36.7Event APEX 15.11Rank 13Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

281The GreenVillains

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 2.54Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6961, 11308, 3976

/ 100 compat

Projected

63 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6961, 11308, 3976

Auto

19.0 32%

Teleop

22.6 38%

Endgame

18.6 31%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 10%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6004, 9315, 281

/ 100 compat

Projected

32.4 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 6004, 9315, 281

Auto

12.1 44%

Teleop

9.3 34%

Endgame

5.8 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 10%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.33 · Blue 0.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score63pts

Blue projected score32.4pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample136alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 10%, blue 11%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 30.5
Score range: 21–74
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 131 vs event baseline 60.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

117.4Season APEX169.7

19Auto12.1

22.6Teleop9.3

18.6Endgame5.8

65Consistency78

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	16
teleop	29	26
endgame	9	18
foul	10	0
total	71	60

Result

Final score

71 – 60

Prediction correct · off by 17.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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