FSC District Richland Event presented by Aflac & RCSD1

Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

107.5 – 51.39

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

197 – 37

Prediction correct · off by 51.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 423.6 ±9.3

1102M'Aiken Magic

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 5.88Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4451ROBOTZ Garage

Season APEX 220.7Event APEX 79.18Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

343Metal-In-Motion

Season APEX 136.1Event APEX 22.44Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 149.5 ±12.2

1051Technical Terminators

Season APEX 64.1Event APEX 24.51Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3976Electric Hornets

Season APEX 23Event APEX 16.2Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

281The GreenVillains

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 10.68Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1102, 4451, 343

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1102, 4451, 343

Auto

17.5 16%

Teleop

66.6 59%

Endgame

28.7 25%

Strengths

· 4451 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1051, 3976, 281

/ 100 compat

Projected

51.4 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1051, 3976, 281

Auto

10.3 22%

Teleop

19.2 41%

Endgame

16.8 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.56 · Blue 0.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score107.5pts

Blue projected score51.4pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample136alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 18%, blue 13%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 56.1
Score range: 41–118
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 234 vs event baseline 56.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

423.6Season APEX149.5

17.5Auto10.3

66.6Teleop19.2

28.7Endgame16.8

63Consistency54

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	14
teleop	117	3
endgame	52	20
foul	0	0
total	197	37

Result

Final score

197 – 37

Prediction correct · off by 51.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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