FSC District Richland Event presented by Aflac & RCSD1

Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

51.52 – 0

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

69 – 52

Prediction correct · off by 34.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 352.8 ±9.3

343Metal-In-Motion

Season APEX 136.1Event APEX 19.78Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

281The GreenVillains

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 5.11Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8575The Due Westerners

Season APEX 154.3Event APEX 26.63Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 184.2 ±11.2

9477Lambda (λ)

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX -9.57Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3976Electric Hornets

Season APEX 23Event APEX 1.35Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1319Flash

Season APEX 64Event APEX -3.12Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 343, 281, 8575

/ 100 compat

Projected

51.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 343, 281, 8575

Auto

4.9 11%

Teleop

23.2 52%

Endgame

16.3 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9477, 3976, 1319

/ 100 compat

Projected

-11.3 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9477, 3976, 1319

Auto

6.7 0%

Teleop

-22.5 100%

Endgame

-5.7 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.61 · Blue 0.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score51.5pts

Blue projected score-11.3pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample136alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 20%, blue 8%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 51.5
Score range: -10–62
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 121 vs event baseline 57.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

352.8Season APEX184.2

4.9Auto6.7

23.2Teleop-22.5

16.3Endgame-5.7

75Consistency81

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	17
teleop	29	18
endgame	17	7
foul	0	10
total	69	52

Result

Final score

69 – 52

Prediction correct · off by 34.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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