FSC District Richland Event presented by Aflac & RCSD1

Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

20.67 – 82.37

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

29 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 22 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 161.7 ±9.8

9315Coding Comets

Season APEX 36.7Event APEX 18.15Rank 13Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9477Lambda (λ)

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX -11.02Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10388The Iron Wolverine Angels

Season APEX 27.8Event APEX 13.54Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 250.8 ±9.8

8575The Due Westerners

Season APEX 154.3Event APEX 20.15Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4864INNovation Station

Season APEX 46Event APEX 28.33Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11308Daniel Morgan Patriots

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 33.89Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9315, 9477, 10388

/ 100 compat

Projected

20.7 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9315, 9477, 10388

Auto

7.3 26%

Teleop

15.7 57%

Endgame

4.7 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 9%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8575, 4864, 11308

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 8575, 4864, 11308

Auto

11.8 18%

Teleop

37.4 57%

Endgame

16.2 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 9%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.76 · Blue 1.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score20.7pts

Blue projected score82.4pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample136alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 9%, blue 18%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -61.7
Score range: 11–92
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 147 vs event baseline 54.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

161.7Season APEX250.8

7.3Auto11.8

15.7Teleop37.4

4.7Endgame16.2

74Consistency56

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	33
teleop	7	50
endgame	0	30
foul	5	5
total	29	118

Result

Final score

29 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 22 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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