FSC District Richland Event presented by Aflac & RCSD1

Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

16.98 – 44.78

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

19 – 85

Prediction correct · off by 21.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 222.7 ±9.8

281The GreenVillains

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 4.84Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10619Rana's Rivets

Season APEX 93.5Event APEX 6.79Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1102M'Aiken Magic

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 5.35Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 198.6 ±9.3

5484Career Academy Robotics - Wolf Pack

Season APEX 64Event APEX 29.31Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1319Flash

Season APEX 64Event APEX -5.81Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6004f(x) Robotics

Season APEX 70.6Event APEX 21.28Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 281, 10619, 1102

/ 100 compat

Projected

17 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 281, 10619, 1102

Auto

16.8 81%

Teleop

-2.9 0%

Endgame

6.9 33%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 12%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5484, 1319, 6004

/ 100 compat

Projected

44.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5484, 1319, 6004

Auto

10.3 34%

Teleop

13.2 44%

Endgame

6.7 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 12%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.99 · Blue 1.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score17pts

Blue projected score44.8pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample136alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 12%, blue 8%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -27.8
Score range: 7–55
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 104 vs event baseline 53.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

222.7Season APEX198.6

16.8Auto10.3

-2.9Teleop13.2

6.9Endgame6.7

96Consistency98

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	28
teleop	6	34
endgame	0	8
foul	0	15
total	19	85

Result

Final score

19 – 85

Prediction correct · off by 21.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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