Qualification · Qualification 15
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
15.57 – 57.52
37%63%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
26 – 71
Prediction correct · off by 12 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 141.8 ±11.6
Season APEX 28.4Event APEX -5.87Rank 26Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 64.1Event APEX 8.16Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 13.28Rank 24Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 127.2 ±11.7
Season APEX 20.4Event APEX -2.44Rank 23Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 70.1Event APEX 46.02Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 36.7Event APEX 13.94Rank 13Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 2815, 1051, 11368
20
/ 100 compatProjected
15.6 pts
~0.9 RP (district)
Teams: 2815, 1051, 11368
Auto
6.4 100%
Teleop
-1.6 0%
Endgame
0.2 4%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 11%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 11475, 1758, 9315
59
/ 100 compatProjected
57.5 pts
~1.4 RP (district)
Teams: 11475, 1758, 9315
Auto
21.2 36%
Teleop
34.2 57%
Endgame
4.3 7%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 11%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.89 · Blue 1.45
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score15.6pts
Blue projected score57.5pts
Red win probability37%
Event bonus sample136alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 11%, blue 16%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -41.9
- Score range
- 6–68
- Upset likelihood
- 37%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
141.8Season APEX127.2
6.4Auto21.2
-1.6Teleop34.2
0.2Endgame4.3
178Consistency67
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 9 | 17 |
| teleop | 7 | 43 |
| endgame | 10 | 11 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 26 | 71 |
Result
Final score
26 – 71
Prediction correct · off by 12 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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