FSC District Richland Event presented by Aflac & RCSD1

Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

74.91 – 57.47

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

103 – 68

Prediction correct · off by 19.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 354.7 ±9.3

1287Aluminum Assault

Season APEX 149.9Event APEX 27.39Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11308Daniel Morgan Patriots

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 29.93Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8575The Due Westerners

Season APEX 154.3Event APEX 17.59Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 219.1 ±9.8

9005Avian Robotics

Season APEX 37Event APEX 10.7Rank 25Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4864INNovation Station

Season APEX 46Event APEX 28.48Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

343Metal-In-Motion

Season APEX 136.1Event APEX 18.29Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1287, 11308, 8575

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1287, 11308, 8575

Auto

14.2 21%

Teleop

40.5 61%

Endgame

11.4 17%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9005, 4864, 343

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.5 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9005, 4864, 343

Auto

14.3 28%

Teleop

23.4 46%

Endgame

13.4 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.36 · Blue 1.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score74.9pts

Blue projected score57.5pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample136alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 21%, blue 11%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 17.4
Score range: 48–84
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 171 vs event baseline 52.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

354.7Season APEX219.1

14.2Auto14.3

40.5Teleop23.4

11.4Endgame13.4

101Consistency147

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	17
teleop	50	43
endgame	23	8
foul	15	0
total	103	68

Result

Final score

103 – 68

Prediction correct · off by 19.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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