Qualification · Qualification 12
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
69.98 – 0.42
70%30%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
51 – 26
Prediction correct · off by 22.3 points
Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 123.6 ±11.2
Season APEX 23Event APEX 23.05Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 64Event APEX 28.08Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 36.6Event APEX 18.85Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 131.9 ±10.4
Season APEX 36.7Event APEX 11.34Rank 13Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 28.4Event APEX -10.19Rank 26Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 66.8Event APEX -0.73Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 3976, 5484, 4083
74
/ 100 compatProjected
70 pts
~1.5 RP (district)
Teams: 3976, 5484, 4083
Auto
23.5 42%
Teleop
13.5 24%
Endgame
18.6 33%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
- · Reliable endgame stack
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 8%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 9315, 2815, 1102
8
/ 100 compatProjected
0.4 pts
~0.7 RP (district)
Teams: 9315, 2815, 1102
Auto
11.0 77%
Teleop
3.7 26%
Endgame
-0.5 0%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 8%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.53 · Blue 0.73
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score70pts
Blue projected score0.4pts
Red win probability70%
Event bonus sample136alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 8%, blue 9%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 69.6
- Score range
- -9–79
- Upset likelihood
- 30%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
123.6Season APEX131.9
23.5Auto11
13.5Teleop3.7
18.6Endgame-0.5
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 21 | 17 |
| teleop | 22 | 8 |
| endgame | 8 | 1 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 51 | 26 |
Result
Final score
51 – 26
Prediction correct · off by 22.3 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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