Qualification · Qualification 10
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
73.29 – 45.21
59%41%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
64 – 49
Prediction correct · off by 6.5 points
Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 227.7 ±10.5
Season APEX 64.1Event APEX 15.31Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 70.1Event APEX 49.12Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 93.5Event APEX 8.86Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 120.2 ±12.2
Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 32.87Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 20.4Event APEX 7.17Rank 23Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 5.17Rank 24Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 1051, 1758, 10619
87
/ 100 compatProjected
73.3 pts
~1.4 RP (district)
Teams: 1051, 1758, 10619
Auto
19.4 30%
Teleop
32.5 50%
Endgame
13.2 20%
Strengths
- · 1758 anchors offense
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 17%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 11308, 11475, 11368
60
/ 100 compatProjected
45.2 pts
~1.0 RP (district)
Teams: 11308, 11475, 11368
Auto
13.0 28%
Teleop
29.8 63%
Endgame
4.3 9%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 17%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.39 · Blue 0.99
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score73.3pts
Blue projected score45.2pts
Red win probability59%
Event bonus sample136alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 17%, blue 12%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 28.1
- Score range
- 36–82
- Upset likelihood
- 41%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-16
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
227.7Season APEX120.2
19.4Auto13
32.5Teleop29.8
13.2Endgame4.3
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 18 | 20 |
| teleop | 24 | 20 |
| endgame | 22 | 4 |
| foul | 0 | 5 |
| total | 64 | 49 |
Result
Final score
64 – 49
Prediction correct · off by 6.5 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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