FSC District Richland Event presented by Aflac & RCSD1

Final · Finals 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

165.7 – 102.5

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

163 – 134

Prediction correct · off by 17.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 402.8 ±9.3

10388The Iron Wolverine Angels

Season APEX 27.8Event APEX 13.99Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8575The Due Westerners

Season APEX 154.3Event APEX 59.02Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4451ROBOTZ Garage

Season APEX 220.7Event APEX 92.69Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 171.1 ±9.8

1758Technomancers

Season APEX 70.1Event APEX 47.39Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5484Career Academy Robotics - Wolf Pack

Season APEX 64Event APEX 42.95Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9005Avian Robotics

Season APEX 37Event APEX 12.16Rank 25Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10388, 8575, 4451

/ 100 compat

Projected

165.7 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 10388, 8575, 4451

Auto

27.0 16%

Teleop

92.6 56%

Endgame

44.9 27%

Strengths

· 4451 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1758, 5484, 9005

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.5 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1758, 5484, 9005

Auto

24.6 25%

Teleop

52.0 53%

Endgame

20.8 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.62 · Blue 0.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score165.7pts

Blue projected score102.5pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample136alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 21%, blue 9%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 63.2
Score range: 89–180
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 297 vs event baseline 78.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

402.8Season APEX171.1

27Auto24.6

92.6Teleop52

44.9Endgame20.8

0Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	33
teleop	69	84
endgame	49	12
foul	30	5
total	163	134

Result

Final score

163 – 134

Prediction correct · off by 17.1 pts

Match videos

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