Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

93.07 – 160.3

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

102 – 129

Prediction correct · off by 20.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 143.3 ±10.4

2815Blue Devil Mechanics

Season APEX 28.4Event APEX 27.11Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4533Phoenix

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 38.65Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10231Midnight Circuits

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 27.31Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 367.1 ±9.3

343Metal-In-Motion

Season APEX 136.1Event APEX 52.68Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11308Daniel Morgan Patriots

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 29.58Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6366RAM Rodz Robotics

Season APEX 180.5Event APEX 78.04Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2815, 4533, 10231

/ 100 compat

Projected

93.1 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2815, 4533, 10231

Auto

19.3 21%

Teleop

46.9 50%

Endgame

27.3 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 343, 11308, 6366

/ 100 compat

Projected

160.3 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 343, 11308, 6366

Auto

34.6 22%

Teleop

88.4 57%

Endgame

32.7 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.01 · Blue 1.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score93.1pts

Blue projected score160.3pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -67.2
Score range: 73–180
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 231 vs event baseline 111.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

143.3Season APEX367.1

19.3Auto34.6

46.9Teleop88.4

27.3Endgame32.7

140Consistency83

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	41
teleop	39	56
endgame	44	32
foul	0	0
total	102	129

Result

Final score

102 – 129

Prediction correct · off by 20.1 pts

Match videos

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