Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

202.85 – 90.18

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

215 – 112

Prediction correct · off by 17 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 358.9 ±9.3

8575The Due Westerners

Season APEX 154.3Event APEX 97.82Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6167CB Bearbots

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 24.59Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1287Aluminum Assault

Season APEX 149.9Event APEX 80.44Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 143.3 ±10.4

2815Blue Devil Mechanics

Season APEX 28.4Event APEX 26.11Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4533Phoenix

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 37.64Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10231Midnight Circuits

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 26.43Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8575, 6167, 1287

/ 100 compat

Projected

202.9 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 8575, 6167, 1287

Auto

43.2 22%

Teleop

114.1 57%

Endgame

42.4 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2815, 4533, 10231

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.2 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2815, 4533, 10231

Auto

18.7 21%

Teleop

45.5 50%

Endgame

26.7 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.1 · Blue 0.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score202.9pts

Blue projected score90.2pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 112.7
Score range: 70–223
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 327 vs event baseline 110.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

358.9Season APEX143.3

43.2Auto18.7

114.1Teleop45.5

42.4Endgame26.7

26Consistency133

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	22
teleop	131	58
endgame	50	32
foul	10	0
total	215	112

Result

Final score

215 – 112

Prediction correct · off by 17 pts

Match videos

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