Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

159.46 – 113.03

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

166 – 78

Prediction correct · off by 20.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 367.1 ±9.3

343Metal-In-Motion

Season APEX 136.1Event APEX 52.33Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11308Daniel Morgan Patriots

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 29.5Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6366RAM Rodz Robotics

Season APEX 180.5Event APEX 77.63Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 210.9 ±10.4

3490Viper Drive

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 19.08Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1102M'Aiken Magic

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 32.95Rank 31Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

342Burning Magnetos

Season APEX 91Event APEX 61Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 343, 11308, 6366

/ 100 compat

Projected

159.5 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 343, 11308, 6366

Auto

33.9 22%

Teleop

89.9 57%

Endgame

32.9 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3490, 1102, 342

/ 100 compat

Projected

113 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 3490, 1102, 342

Auto

16.6 15%

Teleop

61.7 54%

Endgame

35.6 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.76 · Blue 1.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score159.5pts

Blue projected score113pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 46.4
Score range: 93–179
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 244 vs event baseline 110.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

367.1Season APEX210.9

33.9Auto16.6

89.9Teleop61.7

32.9Endgame35.6

81Consistency70

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	19
teleop	82	37
endgame	32	17
foul	15	5
total	166	78

Result

Final score

166 – 78

Prediction correct · off by 20.8 pts

Match videos

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