Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

114.76 – 119.92

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

117 – 176

Prediction correct · off by 29.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 226.2 ±10.5

1051Technical Terminators

Season APEX 64.1Event APEX 53.53Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11254FIRST Ignition

Season APEX 55.8Event APEX 22.84Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11167Team Titan

Season APEX 106.3Event APEX 38.39Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 167.3 ±10.4

1319Flash

Season APEX 64Event APEX 50.94Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3489Category 5

Season APEX 33.2Event APEX 22.24Rank 27Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1758Technomancers

Season APEX 70.1Event APEX 46.74Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1051, 11254, 11167

/ 100 compat

Projected

114.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1051, 11254, 11167

Auto

28.7 26%

Teleop

51.4 46%

Endgame

30.6 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1319, 3489, 1758

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.9 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1319, 3489, 1758

Auto

25.1 22%

Teleop

56.4 49%

Endgame

33.8 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.36 · Blue 1.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score114.8pts

Blue projected score119.9pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -5.2
Score range: 95–140
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 293 vs event baseline 109.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

226.2Season APEX167.3

28.7Auto25.1

51.4Teleop56.4

30.6Endgame33.8

78Consistency104

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	26
teleop	53	81
endgame	25	54
foul	5	15
total	117	176

Result

Final score

117 – 176

Prediction correct · off by 29.2 pts

Match videos

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