Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

118.67 – 93.02

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

92 – 115

Prediction missed · off by 24.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 210.9 ±10.4

1102M'Aiken Magic

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 34.9Rank 31Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3490Viper Drive

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 20.71Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

342Burning Magnetos

Season APEX 91Event APEX 63.06Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 171.9 ±10.4

281The GreenVillains

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 34.97Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11424Boa Constructors

Season APEX 50.4Event APEX 25.73Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10367Category 4 Storm Surge

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 32.32Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1102, 3490, 342

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.7 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1102, 3490, 342

Auto

15.6 13%

Teleop

67.3 56%

Endgame

36.8 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 281, 11424, 10367

/ 100 compat

Projected

93 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 281, 11424, 10367

Auto

17.8 21%

Teleop

37.0 43%

Endgame

31.4 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.61 · Blue 1.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score118.7pts

Blue projected score93pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 25.7
Score range: 73–139
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 207 vs event baseline 110.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

210.9Season APEX171.9

15.6Auto17.8

67.3Teleop37

36.8Endgame31.4

62Consistency113

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	18
teleop	40	58
endgame	31	39
foul	0	0
total	92	115

Result

Final score

92 – 115

Prediction missed · off by 24.3 pts

Match videos

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