Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
128.98 – 88.57
62%38%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
86 – 98
Prediction missed · off by 26.2 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 167.3 ±10.4
Season APEX 70.1Event APEX 49.39Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 33.2Event APEX 24.86Rank 27Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 64Event APEX 54.73Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 143.3 ±10.4
Season APEX 28.4Event APEX 24.56Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 37Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 27.01Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 1758, 3489, 1319
74
/ 100 compatProjected
129 pts
~1.7 RP (district)
Teams: 1758, 3489, 1319
Auto
25.6 21%
Teleop
58.8 48%
Endgame
38.6 31%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 39%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 2815, 4533, 10231
61
/ 100 compatProjected
88.6 pts
~1.2 RP (district)
Teams: 2815, 4533, 10231
Auto
18.5 21%
Teleop
47.9 54%
Endgame
22.8 26%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 39%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.67 · Blue 1.16
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score129pts
Blue projected score88.6pts
Red win probability62%
Event bonus sample154alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 39%, blue 37%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 40.4
- Score range
- 69–149
- Upset likelihood
- 38%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
167.3Season APEX143.3
25.6Auto18.5
58.8Teleop47.9
38.6Endgame22.8
104Consistency127
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 24 | 21 |
| teleop | 46 | 36 |
| endgame | 16 | 41 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 86 | 98 |
Result
Final score
86 – 98
Prediction missed · off by 26.2 pts
Match videos
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