Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

189.6 – 114.8

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

248 – 112

Prediction correct · off by 30.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 358.9 ±9.3

8575The Due Westerners

Season APEX 154.3Event APEX 93.64Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6167CB Bearbots

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 19.76Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1287Aluminum Assault

Season APEX 149.9Event APEX 76.2Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 226.2 ±10.5

1051Technical Terminators

Season APEX 64.1Event APEX 53.85Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11254FIRST Ignition

Season APEX 55.8Event APEX 23.11Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11167Team Titan

Season APEX 106.3Event APEX 37.84Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8575, 6167, 1287

/ 100 compat

Projected

189.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 8575, 6167, 1287

Auto

40.2 22%

Teleop

108.5 58%

Endgame

38.2 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1051, 11254, 11167

/ 100 compat

Projected

114.8 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1051, 11254, 11167

Auto

30.0 27%

Teleop

53.6 49%

Endgame

26.2 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.93 · Blue 0.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score189.6pts

Blue projected score114.8pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 74.8
Score range: 95–210
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 360 vs event baseline 109.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

358.9Season APEX226.2

40.2Auto30

108.5Teleop53.6

38.2Endgame26.2

71Consistency72

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	25
teleop	130	40
endgame	57	47
foul	5	0
total	248	112

Result

Final score

248 – 112

Prediction correct · off by 30.6 pts

Match videos

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