Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

104.54 – 156.33

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

127 – 114

Prediction missed · off by 32.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 171.9 ±10.4

10367Category 4 Storm Surge

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 35.96Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11424Boa Constructors

Season APEX 50.4Event APEX 28.91Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

281The GreenVillains

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 39.67Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 367.1 ±9.3

343Metal-In-Motion

Season APEX 136.1Event APEX 50.94Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11308Daniel Morgan Patriots

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 28.39Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6366RAM Rodz Robotics

Season APEX 180.5Event APEX 77Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10367, 11424, 281

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.5 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 10367, 11424, 281

Auto

20.2 20%

Teleop

46.0 45%

Endgame

35.0 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 343, 11308, 6366

/ 100 compat

Projected

156.3 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 343, 11308, 6366

Auto

34.7 23%

Teleop

85.4 56%

Endgame

32.4 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.07 · Blue 1.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score104.5pts

Blue projected score156.3pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -51.8
Score range: 85–176
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 241 vs event baseline 113.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

171.9Season APEX367.1

20.2Auto34.7

46Teleop85.4

35Endgame32.4

132Consistency93

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	31
teleop	64	63
endgame	39	20
foul	0	0
total	127	114

Result

Final score

127 – 114

Prediction missed · off by 32.4 pts

Match videos

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