Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

132.98 – 155.31

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

138 – 164

Prediction correct · off by 6.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 167.3 ±10.4

1319Flash

Season APEX 64Event APEX 54.83Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3489Category 5

Season APEX 33.2Event APEX 26.72Rank 27Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1758Technomancers

Season APEX 70.1Event APEX 51.43Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 367.1 ±9.3

343Metal-In-Motion

Season APEX 136.1Event APEX 50.63Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11308Daniel Morgan Patriots

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 28.03Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6366RAM Rodz Robotics

Season APEX 180.5Event APEX 76.65Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1319, 3489, 1758

/ 100 compat

Projected

133 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1319, 3489, 1758

Auto

25.2 20%

Teleop

61.0 49%

Endgame

39.5 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 343, 11308, 6366

/ 100 compat

Projected

155.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 343, 11308, 6366

Auto

35.5 23%

Teleop

83.6 55%

Endgame

32.5 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.29 · Blue 1.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score133pts

Blue projected score155.3pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -22.3
Score range: 113–175
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 302 vs event baseline 112.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

167.3Season APEX367.1

25.2Auto35.5

61Teleop83.6

39.5Endgame32.5

96Consistency91

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	28
teleop	68	99
endgame	49	32
foul	0	5
total	138	164

Result

Final score

138 – 164

Prediction correct · off by 6.9 pts

Match videos

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