Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

49.42 – 56.36

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

80 – 78

Prediction missed · off by 26.1 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 230.5 ±11.2

11308Daniel Morgan Patriots

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 20.99Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

343Metal-In-Motion

Season APEX 136.1Event APEX 22.98Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6961SIbots

Season APEX 43.9Event APEX 5.45Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 146.3 ±10.4

2815Blue Devil Mechanics

Season APEX 28.4Event APEX 21.33Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4533Phoenix

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 28Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11424Boa Constructors

Season APEX 50.4Event APEX 7.03Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11308, 343, 6961

/ 100 compat

Projected

49.4 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 11308, 343, 6961

Auto

13.7 27%

Teleop

22.8 45%

Endgame

13.7 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2815, 4533, 11424

/ 100 compat

Projected

56.4 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2815, 4533, 11424

Auto

14.0 22%

Teleop

40.5 63%

Endgame

9.9 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.32 · Blue 1.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score49.4pts

Blue projected score56.4pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -6.9
Score range: 32–73
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 158 vs event baseline 95.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

230.5Season APEX146.3

13.7Auto14

22.8Teleop40.5

13.7Endgame9.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	21
teleop	32	41
endgame	25	16
foul	5	0
total	80	78

Result

Final score

80 – 78

Prediction missed · off by 26.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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