Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

115.25 – 86.29

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

135 – 85

Prediction correct · off by 10.5 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 172.4 ±11

1319Flash

Season APEX 64Event APEX 60.87Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11368SCTC ZettaBots

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 9.52Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10367Category 4 Storm Surge

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 44.86Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 208.1 ±10.4

342Burning Magnetos

Season APEX 91Event APEX 20Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

281The GreenVillains

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 21.43Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6167CB Bearbots

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 44.86Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1319, 11368, 10367

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1319, 11368, 10367

Auto

17.9 16%

Teleop

67.7 60%

Endgame

28.0 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 342, 281, 6167

/ 100 compat

Projected

86.3 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 342, 281, 6167

Auto

15.4 18%

Teleop

43.7 51%

Endgame

27.2 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.61 · Blue 1.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score115.3pts

Blue projected score86.3pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 29
Score range: 69–132
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 220 vs event baseline 93.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

172.4Season APEX208.1

17.9Auto15.4

67.7Teleop43.7

28Endgame27.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	25
teleop	32	30
endgame	21	30
foul	60	0
total	135	85

Result

Final score

135 – 85

Prediction correct · off by 10.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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