Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

74.64 – 133.29

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

94 – 146

Prediction correct · off by 16 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 121.3 ±11.7

11424Boa Constructors

Season APEX 50.4Event APEX 25.65Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11475DawgBots

Season APEX 20.4Event APEX 15.25Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11308Daniel Morgan Patriots

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 33.74Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 175.5 ±11

1051Technical Terminators

Season APEX 64.1Event APEX 53.58Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10231Midnight Circuits

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 25.93Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1319Flash

Season APEX 64Event APEX 53.78Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11424, 11475, 11308

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 11424, 11475, 11308

Auto

24.6 32%

Teleop

38.5 50%

Endgame

14.6 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1051, 10231, 1319

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.3 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1051, 10231, 1319

Auto

21.2 17%

Teleop

69.6 57%

Endgame

31.6 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.99 · Blue 1.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score74.6pts

Blue projected score133.3pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -58.6
Score range: 55–153
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 240 vs event baseline 108.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

121.3Season APEX175.5

24.6Auto21.2

38.5Teleop69.6

14.6Endgame31.6

75Consistency72

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	29
teleop	41	84
endgame	26	33
foul	0	0
total	94	146

Result

Final score

94 – 146

Prediction correct · off by 16 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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