Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

57.04 – 70.82

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

67 – 81

Prediction correct · off by 10.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 116.5 ±11

11308Daniel Morgan Patriots

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 26.81Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10361Gatorbots

Season APEX 35Event APEX 20.63Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10591No Cap

Season APEX 31Event APEX 9.6Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 141.1 ±11.7

11398Shark Bytes

Season APEX 42.1Event APEX 26.36Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10599RoboBlazers

Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 23.16Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11254FIRST Ignition

Season APEX 55.8Event APEX 21.3Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11308, 10361, 10591

/ 100 compat

Projected

57 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 11308, 10361, 10591

Auto

17.4 31%

Teleop

17.8 32%

Endgame

20.1 36%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11398, 10599, 11254

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 11398, 10599, 11254

Auto

27.0 40%

Teleop

24.3 36%

Endgame

16.9 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.31 · Blue 1.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score57pts

Blue projected score70.8pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -13.8
Score range: 36–92
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 148 vs event baseline 114.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

116.5Season APEX141.1

17.4Auto27

17.8Teleop24.3

20.1Endgame16.9

110Consistency117

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	28
teleop	23	30
endgame	25	23
foul	0	0
total	67	81

Result

Final score

67 – 81

Prediction correct · off by 10.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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